Thursday, February 10, 2005
Defensive Ends- Overrated Need?
This is Day 1 of our positional analysis debate. Obviously, defense is the biggest need, so we will tackle defense first, then offense, then special teams. For defense, we will analyze the positions in this order: DE, DT, OLB, MLB (perhaps combining the two), CB, S.
Big Bro: This is a topic I'm anxious to talk about, because a lot of NFL "experts" cite Defensive End as a dire need for the Chiefs. Some draft analysts also say that a DE should be the Chiefs' 1st round pick. I just don't see it that way. I would consider DE to be a need, but not a glaring one.
First, any talk of DE has to start with Jared Allen, who surprised a lot of people last year. It's clear that he can be a pass rushing threat. The question becomes whether he can be a good every-down DE. When he won the starting job, his performance tailed off a little bit and his deficiencies were a little more glaring. He's prone to overpursuit, and he can get pushed off the line if he doesn't get a head start. He could also stand to develop another move. One thing he has definitely shown, though, is that he can hunt ballcarriers down. His motor is constantly running, and he was pretty good at making sure runners didn't get out of his grasp. Those are elements this defense sorely needs.
Eric Hicks has clearly lost a step, but I don't think he's a liability (unlike the situation at other positions). He could probably stand to benefit from focusing a little more on pass rushing again. I think he kind of fell into a run-stop mindset a little too often last year. Hicks will probably never be a double-digit sack machine again, and he will probably have to be replaced in the next few years, but I don't see an urgent need to replace him. I think he can be a part of a decent defense.
Vonnie Holliday is probably the most likely candidate to get cut out of all the major Chiefs players. He simply hasn't made nearly the impact they expected. He has been adequate-to-good on run defense, but they already have Hicks. I don't think any defense can afford to have two run-stop-only DEs, which leaves Allen for most plays, and I think Hicks' all around game is better than Holliday's. Holliday just doesn't have the ability to shed blockers who stay in position on pass plays.
If the Chiefs shake up their DTs, then John Browning is a good candidate to either start instead of Hicks or at least provide depth. Browning is probably a better DE than he is a DT, and I think he can be an adequate DE. He's shown the ability to bull rush the passer when he plays on the end.
Jimmy Wilkerson doesn't look like he'll be an impact player as a starter or as a backup. He might provide some depth, so if Holliday goes, Wilkerson might stay around. But the Chiefs could probably afford to spend at least a mid-round pick on a DE, which would jeopardize Wilkerson's spot on the roster if Browning's moved to DE.
Overall, like I said, DE is a need. But it's not a big need. I think the Chiefs need to address their CB, LB, S, and DT situations before they even start to consider DEs.
Little Bro: I have to say that I'm a bit on the fence on this issue. While I completely agree that the need for a DE is overblown, I've become a bit more receptive to the idea of a new DE simply because it might be the best defensive player we could pull off in the draft.
Unlike BigBro, I don't have much confidence in Eric Hicks. I like him a lot as a rotational player, but don't think he adds a whole lot of value as a starter. There were a few moments where he seemed to outmuscle his guy and add some late pressure, but also lots of moments where he just looked flat-out outmatched. The most obvious case I can recall is game 1 against the Broncos, when Plummer would bootleg opposite of Hicks, and Hicks looked as slow as an offensive tackle sprinting after a QB. Granted, Hicks and Browning don't make mistakes on their end, but neither of them adds any value. I can't think of a single instance where Hicks applied immediate pressure to a QB. The only time he is ever in the backfield applying pressure is because of good coverage. In other words, Hicks' and Browning's role is not to make plays; instead, it's to avoid making mistakes. But we'll save that for a future discussion. It's not even worth bringing up Vonnie Holliday, because Carl Peterson would have to be on crack to keep him. As for Jimmy Wilkerson, I'm sick of hearing this "raw, developing talent" label. We've had far too many of those. Wilkerson has not flashed any potential so far and I'd be surprised if he started now. Of course, there could be a strong argument that it's not the problem with our end, but with our tackle--Ryan Sims.
As for Jared Allen, you can only help but feel optimistic about the kid's potential. He came in as a smallish DE and still sparked a pass rush. I'm excited to see the kid's potential when he adds a little muscle mass.
In total, I can't say I disagree with Big Bro that it's a problem, but it's a minor problem in the grand scheme of our defensive mess. I think there are better ways to improve our pass rush, most notably, by installing a LB that actually has at least one pass rush move at his disposal (amazingly, none of our current LBs have that ability). One guy I am particularly intrigued by is Keyaran Fox, and I wish he would have had some time to strut his stuff. His profile seems to be ideal for speed rush situations (a role that I think Stills was absolutely awful at last season)--a smallish LB with a lot of speed off the edges and good pass rush moves. Then again, if he didn't see the field, maybe there's a very good reason for that.
We may look to free agency early for a cornerback. And if Derrick Johnson is off the board by our first pick, then we would be reaching for the next best LB. While I don't think that DE is a need, I think that if Merriman and Pollack are sitting on the board when we pick first, they just might be the most attractive option. And while DE isn't an enormous "need" for KC, a quality pass rush from the right end would be an enormous upgrade. If we fill our need for cornerback and DJ is off the board, I think we'd be foolish NOT to look into D-ends when we're looking to burn our first pick. The only other defensive player outside of DE I could see us going for without reaching, in this instance, is someone like Thomas Davis out of Georgia.
Big Bro: This is a topic I'm anxious to talk about, because a lot of NFL "experts" cite Defensive End as a dire need for the Chiefs. Some draft analysts also say that a DE should be the Chiefs' 1st round pick. I just don't see it that way. I would consider DE to be a need, but not a glaring one.
First, any talk of DE has to start with Jared Allen, who surprised a lot of people last year. It's clear that he can be a pass rushing threat. The question becomes whether he can be a good every-down DE. When he won the starting job, his performance tailed off a little bit and his deficiencies were a little more glaring. He's prone to overpursuit, and he can get pushed off the line if he doesn't get a head start. He could also stand to develop another move. One thing he has definitely shown, though, is that he can hunt ballcarriers down. His motor is constantly running, and he was pretty good at making sure runners didn't get out of his grasp. Those are elements this defense sorely needs.
Eric Hicks has clearly lost a step, but I don't think he's a liability (unlike the situation at other positions). He could probably stand to benefit from focusing a little more on pass rushing again. I think he kind of fell into a run-stop mindset a little too often last year. Hicks will probably never be a double-digit sack machine again, and he will probably have to be replaced in the next few years, but I don't see an urgent need to replace him. I think he can be a part of a decent defense.
Vonnie Holliday is probably the most likely candidate to get cut out of all the major Chiefs players. He simply hasn't made nearly the impact they expected. He has been adequate-to-good on run defense, but they already have Hicks. I don't think any defense can afford to have two run-stop-only DEs, which leaves Allen for most plays, and I think Hicks' all around game is better than Holliday's. Holliday just doesn't have the ability to shed blockers who stay in position on pass plays.
If the Chiefs shake up their DTs, then John Browning is a good candidate to either start instead of Hicks or at least provide depth. Browning is probably a better DE than he is a DT, and I think he can be an adequate DE. He's shown the ability to bull rush the passer when he plays on the end.
Jimmy Wilkerson doesn't look like he'll be an impact player as a starter or as a backup. He might provide some depth, so if Holliday goes, Wilkerson might stay around. But the Chiefs could probably afford to spend at least a mid-round pick on a DE, which would jeopardize Wilkerson's spot on the roster if Browning's moved to DE.
Overall, like I said, DE is a need. But it's not a big need. I think the Chiefs need to address their CB, LB, S, and DT situations before they even start to consider DEs.
Little Bro: I have to say that I'm a bit on the fence on this issue. While I completely agree that the need for a DE is overblown, I've become a bit more receptive to the idea of a new DE simply because it might be the best defensive player we could pull off in the draft.
Unlike BigBro, I don't have much confidence in Eric Hicks. I like him a lot as a rotational player, but don't think he adds a whole lot of value as a starter. There were a few moments where he seemed to outmuscle his guy and add some late pressure, but also lots of moments where he just looked flat-out outmatched. The most obvious case I can recall is game 1 against the Broncos, when Plummer would bootleg opposite of Hicks, and Hicks looked as slow as an offensive tackle sprinting after a QB. Granted, Hicks and Browning don't make mistakes on their end, but neither of them adds any value. I can't think of a single instance where Hicks applied immediate pressure to a QB. The only time he is ever in the backfield applying pressure is because of good coverage. In other words, Hicks' and Browning's role is not to make plays; instead, it's to avoid making mistakes. But we'll save that for a future discussion. It's not even worth bringing up Vonnie Holliday, because Carl Peterson would have to be on crack to keep him. As for Jimmy Wilkerson, I'm sick of hearing this "raw, developing talent" label. We've had far too many of those. Wilkerson has not flashed any potential so far and I'd be surprised if he started now. Of course, there could be a strong argument that it's not the problem with our end, but with our tackle--Ryan Sims.
As for Jared Allen, you can only help but feel optimistic about the kid's potential. He came in as a smallish DE and still sparked a pass rush. I'm excited to see the kid's potential when he adds a little muscle mass.
In total, I can't say I disagree with Big Bro that it's a problem, but it's a minor problem in the grand scheme of our defensive mess. I think there are better ways to improve our pass rush, most notably, by installing a LB that actually has at least one pass rush move at his disposal (amazingly, none of our current LBs have that ability). One guy I am particularly intrigued by is Keyaran Fox, and I wish he would have had some time to strut his stuff. His profile seems to be ideal for speed rush situations (a role that I think Stills was absolutely awful at last season)--a smallish LB with a lot of speed off the edges and good pass rush moves. Then again, if he didn't see the field, maybe there's a very good reason for that.
We may look to free agency early for a cornerback. And if Derrick Johnson is off the board by our first pick, then we would be reaching for the next best LB. While I don't think that DE is a need, I think that if Merriman and Pollack are sitting on the board when we pick first, they just might be the most attractive option. And while DE isn't an enormous "need" for KC, a quality pass rush from the right end would be an enormous upgrade. If we fill our need for cornerback and DJ is off the board, I think we'd be foolish NOT to look into D-ends when we're looking to burn our first pick. The only other defensive player outside of DE I could see us going for without reaching, in this instance, is someone like Thomas Davis out of Georgia.
